RBC Capital Markets recently reiterated its positive outlook on Shopify, predicting the e-commerce giant will continue to outpace the broader U.S. online retail market. This forecast is supported by strong performance indicators and strategic initiatives, positioning Shopify as a compelling growth stock for investors.

RBC Capital Foresees Strong Trajectory for Shopify in Expanding E-commerce Landscape

On April 21, 2026, RBC Capital reaffirmed its "Outperform" rating for Shopify (NASDAQ: SHOP), setting a price target of $170. This optimistic view follows the analysis of fresh U.S. e-commerce growth data, which suggests that Shopify is consistently gaining market share. According to RBC, the first quarter of 2026 saw Shopify's gross merchandise volume (GMV) surge by 34.3% year-over-year, reaching an impressive $100.4 billion. This figure surpassed the consensus estimate of $98.7 billion by 1.8%, indicating a robust and accelerating business trajectory. Furthermore, RBC noted that gross payment volume (GPV) is growing even faster than GMV, fueled by increased adoption of payment solutions and sustained strength in offline sales channels.

Beyond the impressive volume metrics, RBC highlighted several other catalysts for Shopify's continued success. U.S. consumer spending showed a noticeable uptick through March, contributing to stronger e-commerce growth compared to the previous quarter. Shopify is also expected to benefit from a more favorable foreign exchange tailwind in Q1 2026, estimated at 225 basis points, significantly higher than the 120 basis points observed in Q4 2025. Looking ahead, RBC anticipates that Shopify's strategic focus on large enterprises, aggressive international expansion, and the development of new channels such as point-of-sale (POS) and business-to-business (B2B) will sustain its market outperformance.

These projections build upon Shopify's solid financial results for the fourth quarter and full-year 2025. The company reported a 31% revenue growth in Q4 and achieved a 19% free cash flow margin. For the entire year, revenue increased by 30%, with a 17% free cash flow margin. Shopify emphasized that this strong performance was broad-based, spanning across various merchant sizes, geographical regions, and sales channels. For the first quarter of 2026, Shopify anticipates revenue growth in the low-30s percentage range compared to the same period last year. Additionally, the company announced a $2 billion share repurchase program, signaling confidence in its financial health and future prospects. Shopify is scheduled to release its Q1 2026 earnings on May 5, 2026.

Shopify, a leading e-commerce technology provider, offers comprehensive tools for businesses of all sizes to establish, operate, scale, and market their online presence. Its extensive operational footprint spans across the United States, Asia-Pacific, Canada, the Middle East, Europe, Africa, and Latin America.

RBC Capital's continued confidence in Shopify underscores the company's strong fundamentals and strategic agility in a dynamic global e-commerce landscape. For investors, this outlook suggests that Shopify remains a key player with significant upside potential, driven by its ability to innovate and expand its market reach.